Comments on: Plausible Motivations http://blog.janehaddam.com/2010/03/01/plausible-motivations/ Jane Haddam’s WordPress weblog Sat, 11 Feb 2012 01:25:24 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.4 By: robert_piepenbrink http://blog.janehaddam.com/2010/03/01/plausible-motivations/comment-page-1/#comment-1981 robert_piepenbrink Mon, 01 Mar 2010 21:40:58 +0000 http://blog.janehaddam.com/?p=1372#comment-1981 I'll stick with my observation that there is a VERY strong human bias in favor of believing what the person would prefer to be true. Admiting a mortal threat would then require logically doing many distateful things, while denying the threat permits one to go on as one pleases. I try always to pay particular attention to people who would in fact prefer not to believe what they do--whose interests and inclinations would be better served by something else. Consider a five-star General and President (Eisenhower) saying our military build-up needed to be watched, or a liberal newly elected as President (JFK) saying our taxes were at unsustainable levels and had to be cut. But there are seldom many public figures like that. On the more general question of motivations, maybe 10-15 years ago I started noticing popular fiction in which the behavior of the leading characters was incomprehensible to me. I privately refer to them as "Martian" novels, which perhaps wrongs Leigh Brackett and Edgar Rice Burroughs. But if I can't understand why the main characters are behaving as they do, the novel does not come home. I’ll stick with my observation that there is a VERY strong human bias in favor of believing what the person would prefer to be true. Admiting a mortal threat would then require logically doing many distateful things, while denying the threat permits one to go on as one pleases. I try always to pay particular attention to people who would in fact prefer not to believe what they do–whose interests and inclinations would be better served by something else. Consider a five-star General and President (Eisenhower) saying our military build-up needed to be watched, or a liberal newly elected as President (JFK) saying our taxes were at unsustainable levels and had to be cut.
But there are seldom many public figures like that.

On the more general question of motivations, maybe 10-15 years ago I started noticing popular fiction in which the behavior of the leading characters was incomprehensible to me. I privately refer to them as “Martian” novels, which perhaps wrongs Leigh Brackett and Edgar Rice Burroughs.
But if I can’t understand why the main characters are behaving as they do, the novel does not come home.

]]> By: jd http://blog.janehaddam.com/2010/03/01/plausible-motivations/comment-page-1/#comment-1980 jd Mon, 01 Mar 2010 18:29:17 +0000 http://blog.janehaddam.com/?p=1372#comment-1980 If we are talking about Hitler, Stalin and Pol Pot, perhaps we should note that they carefully did not talk about killing people. Hitler talked about killing subhuman Jews. Stalin was killing counterrevolutionaries. And Pol Pot was killing the bourgeois. As for Iran, notice that they never refer to Israel, its always the Zionist Entity. If we are talking about Hitler, Stalin and Pol Pot, perhaps we should note that they carefully did not talk about killing people.

Hitler talked about killing subhuman Jews. Stalin was killing counterrevolutionaries. And Pol Pot was killing the bourgeois.

As for Iran, notice that they never refer to Israel, its always the Zionist Entity.

]]> By: jem http://blog.janehaddam.com/2010/03/01/plausible-motivations/comment-page-1/#comment-1979 jem Mon, 01 Mar 2010 15:13:55 +0000 http://blog.janehaddam.com/?p=1372#comment-1979 Eliot. In addition to culture, politics and history, what about physical climate and its effect on behavior? That probably sounds off kilter. There's probably not a lot of research to back that up. Public opinion does count. Would Hitler have achieved the extreme power that he did without public opinion on his side? Oswald Mosely and the British Union of Fascists failed to succeed in Britain in the '30s due to lack of public support. I don't know enough about the Afghanistan situation to form a solid opinion. But I do think threats by any country, particularly as powerful as Iran, that they will go to war should be taken seriously. Whether any negotiation would work, I can't say. Eliot.
In addition to culture, politics and history, what about physical climate and its effect on behavior? That probably sounds off kilter. There’s probably not a lot of research to back that up.
Public opinion does count. Would Hitler have achieved the extreme power that he did without public opinion on his side? Oswald Mosely and the British Union of Fascists failed to succeed in Britain in the ’30s due to lack of public support.
I don’t know enough about the Afghanistan situation to form a solid opinion. But I do think threats by any country, particularly as powerful as Iran, that they will go to war should be taken seriously. Whether any negotiation would work, I can’t say.

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